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Artprice100©: The Art Market’s Blue-chip Artists Yield Nearly as Much as the Top Performing Companies in the American Economy

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thierry Ehrmann, Artprice’s founder/CEO, highlights the art market’s excellent performance in H1 2019: “A collector who, at the start of this year, invested in the 100 most successful artists of the last five years (2014-2018), would already be looking at a value accretion of almost a sixth in the value of his/her portfolio.”

The Artprice100 © index gained +16% over the first half of 2019 while the S&P 500 added +18% over the same period. The similarity in the performances between the American financial markets and a portfolio of works by the world’s top performing artists (defined in a purely objective manner) proves the undeniable attractiveness of the Art Market as an alternative investment.

Fewer transactions

The performance of the Artprice100© over the first half of 2019 was driven by exceptionally strong demand, barely satisfied by supply. The supply/demand imbalance, generated a rapid increase in value, particularly on works by the 100 top performing artists on the global secondary art market.

The turnover slowdown recorded in H1 2019 by major auction houses, including Sotheby’s (-9%) and Christie’s (-28%), reflects a less dynamic high-end market than in previous years. However, prices have shown no signs of fatigue and the contraction in the volume of sales is a reminder that the art market is directly dependent on the number of works in circulation.

In a financial context of sustained negative or near-zero refinancing rates, some collectors are probably preferring to hold certain artworks and not cash in on investments that remain highly competitive. Moreover, the persistence of extremely high transaction costs, both in galleries and in auction rooms, is discouraging short holding periods (under five years), and tempting some collectors to consider private transactions as an alternative.

The Artprice100© index driven by Warhol, Zao Wou-Ki and Wu Guanzhong

Heavily weighted in our Artprice100© index with 9.1% of the portfolio, Pablo Picasso has not contributed to its value accretion for several years. As we have seen over the last four years, his prices contracted -2% in the first half of 2019.

However, Andy Warhol, Fu Baoshi, Zao Wou-Ki and particularly Wu Guanzhong have all clearly enjoyed value accretion, providing the main thrust for the progression of our Artprice100© index in H1 2019. Without setting any new auction records, these artists have all enjoyed strong price inflation. The sale of major works by these artists will no doubt confirm the trend.

On 2 June last, a large drawing by Wu Guanzhong entitled Lion grove garden (1988) fetched $20.8 million at China Guardian. It was previously acquired for $17.8 million on 3 June 2011 at Poly Beijing. Adding 17% over the last eight years, the drawing generated, in financial terms, an average annual return of +1.9%. However, another Guanzhong resale suggests that the bulk of the value accretion on his works has occurred in the last 6 months: an important Guanzhong work entitled Two Swallows was purchased for $7.1 million on 3 June 2011 (at the same sale as Lion grove garden) and fetched $7.8 million in December 2018, an increase of just +9.8%.

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Paul Cézanne and George Condo

Investments in Modern artists carry the least risk and demand for their work is continuing to grow steadily offering attractive returns over the long term. Claude Monet and Paul Signac have both signed new auction records this year. Similarly, 2019 is already proving to be a superb year (the best since 2000) for Paul Cézanne. His painting Bouilloire et fruits (c. 1888-90), acquired for $29.5 million in 1999, fetched $59.3 million on 13 May 2019 at Christie’s New York, generating an average annual ROI of 3.6% over 20 years.

At the other end of the spectrum, Contemporary artists offer striking returns in the medium and short term. The most spectacular entry into the composition of the Artprice100© index this year is undoubtedly George Condo. The American artist enjoyed a massive secondary market success in 2018with 78 paintings and 34 drawings selling for more than $63 million, and on three continents (America, Europe and Asia)! The Condo phenomenon has been clearly illustrated by a number of rapid resales of small works including Soft Green Abstraction (1983), which was purchased for $17,000 in April 2017 in Munich and resold a year later in New York for $46,000.

In total, there were seven changes this year in the composition of the Artprice 100© index.

In

Out

George Condo

Huang Binhong

Giorgio Morandi

Huang Zhou

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Robert Motherwell

Anish Kapoor

Jean Paul Riopelle

Li Keran

Rufino Tamayo

Xu Beihong

Frank Auerbach

Pieter Brueghel II

Hans Arp

Giorgio de Chirico

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Four women… and two Old Masters

Unfortunately, we see no change regarding female artists. This year again, only four of the artists in the Artprice100© are women: Yayoi Kusama (Japan), Joan Mitchell (US), Louise Bourgeois (France) and Barbara Hepworth (UK). Yayoi Kusamanow represents 1.3% of the index compared with 0.9% last year. Her price index rose 20% in H1 2019.

The relegation of Pieter Brueghel II for reasons relating to market liquidity has exacerbated the rarity of Old Masters in the index. Numerically, the composition of the index is dominated by Modern artists, numbering 49, followed by Post-War artists (29), Contemporary artists (12), 19th century artists (8) and lastly… Old Masters (only 2).

Composition of Artprice100© index for H1 2019

Artist – Share – Period

  1. Pablo PICASSO (1881-1973) – 9.1% – Modern
  2. Andy WARHOL (1928-1987) – 6.4% – Post-War
  3. Claude MONET (1840-1926) – 4.5% – 19th Century
  4. QI Baishi (1864-1957) – 3.9% – Modern
  5. Jean-Michel BASQUIAT (1960-1988) – 3.7% – Contemporary
  6. Gerhard RICHTER (b. 1932) – 3.3% – Post-War
  7. ZAO Wou-Ki (1921-2013) – 2.9% – Post-War
  8. FU Baoshi (1904-1965) – 2.5% – Modern
  9. Alberto GIACOMETTI (1901-1966) – 2.4% – Modern
  10. Amedeo MODIGLIANI (1884-1920) – 2.2% – Modern
  11. Cy TWOMBLY (1928-2011) – 2.2% – Post-War
  12. WU Guanzhong (1919-2010) – 2.1% – Modern
  13. Roy LICHTENSTEIN (1923-1997) – 2.0% – Post-War
  14. Lucio FONTANA (1899-1968) – 1.9% – Modern
  15. Alexander CALDER (1898-1976) – 1.8% – Modern
  16. Marc CHAGALL (1887-1985) – 1.8% – Modern
  17. Joan MIRO (1893-1983) – 1.7% – Modern
  18. Willem DE KOONING (1904-1997) – 1.7% – Modern
  19. Henri MATISSE (1869-1954) – 1.5% – Modern
  20. Fernand LÉGER (1881-1955) – 1.4% – Modern
  21. Christopher WOOL (b. 1955) 1.4% – Contemporary
  22. Yayoi KUSAMA (b. 1929) – 1.3% – Post-War
  23. Jean DUBUFFET (1901-1985) – 1.3% – Modern
  24. René MAGRITTE (1898-1967) – 1.2% – Modern
  25. Peter DOIG (b. 1959) – 1.2% – Contemporary
  26. Wassily KANDINSKY (1866-1944) – 1.2% – Modern
  27. Jeff KOONS (b. 1955) – 1.2% – Contemporary
  28. David HOCKNEY (b. 1937) – 1.1% – Post-War
  29. Henry MOORE (1898-1986) – 1.0% – Modern
  30. LIN Fengmian (1900-1991) – 0.9% – Modern
  31. CHU Teh-Chun (1920-2014) – 0.9% – Post-War
  32. Paul GAUGUIN (1848-1903) – 0.9% – 19th Century
  33. Pierre-Auguste RENOIR (1841-1919) – 0.8% – 19th Century
  34. SAN Yu (1895-1966) – 0.8% – Modern
  35. Richard PRINCE (b. 1949) – 0.8% – Contemporary
  36. Sigmar POLKE (1941-2010) – 0.7% – Post-War
  37. Joan MITCHELL (1926-1992) – 0.7% – Post-War
  38. PU Ru (1896-1963) – 0.7% – Modern
  39. Auguste RODIN (1840-1917) – 0.7% – 19th Century
  40. Edgar DEGAS (1834-1917) – 0.7% – 19th Century
  41. Paul CÉZANNE (1839-1906) – 0.7% – 19th Century
  42. Yves KLEIN (1928-1962) – 0.6% – Post-War
  43. Camille PISSARRO (1830-1903) – 0.6% – 19th Century
  44. Richard DIEBENKORN (1922-1993) –  0.6% – Post-War
  45. Ed RUSCHA (b. 1937) – 0.6% – Post-War
  46. Keith HARING (1958-1990) – 0.5% – Contemporary
  47. Martin KIPPENBERGER (1953-1997) – 0.5% – Contemporary
  48. Louise BOURGEOIS (1911-2010) – 0.5% – Modern
  49. Alberto BURRI (1915-1995) – 0.5% – Modern
  50. Frank STELLA (b. 1936) – 0.5% – Post-War
  51. Damien HIRST (b. 1965) – 0.4% – Contemporary
  52. Egon SCHIELE (1890-1918) – 0.4% – Modern
  53. Ernst Ludwig KIRCHNER (1880-1938) – 0.4% – Modern
  54. Georges BRAQUE (1882-1963) – 0.4% – Modern
  55. Georg BASELITZ (b. 1938) – 0.4% – Post-War
  56. Pierre SOULAGES (b. 1919) – 0.4% – Modern
  57. Juan GRIS (1887-1927) – 0.4% – Modern
  58. Salvador DALI (1904-1989) – 0.4% – Modern
  59. Edvard MUNCH (1863-1944) – 0.4% – Modern
  60. Paul SIGNAC (1863-1935) – 0.4% – Modern
  61. DONG Qichang (1555-1636) – 0.4% – Old Master
  62. Fernando BOTERO (b. 1932) – 0.4% – Post-War
  63. WEN Zhengming (1470-1559) – 0.4% – Old Master
  64. George CONDO (b. 1957) –  0.4% – Contemporary
  65. Sam FRANCIS (1923-1994) – 0.4% – Post-War
  66. Alighiero BOETTI (1940-1994) – 0.4% – Post-War
  67. Bernard BUFFET (1928-1999) – 0.4% – Post-War
  68. Max ERNST (1891-1976) – 0.4% – Modern
  69. Robert RAUSCHENBERG (1925-2008) – 0.4% – Post-War
  70. CHEN Yifei (1946-2005) – 0.3% – Contemporary
  71. Maurice DE VLAMINCK (1876-1958) – 0.3% – Modern
  72. Barbara HEPWORTH (1903-1975) – 0.3% – Modern
  73. Pierre BONNARD (1867-1947) – 0.3% – Modern
  74. Donald JUDD (1928-1994) – 0.3% – Post-War
  75. Max BECKMANN (1884-1950) – 0.3% – Modern
  76. Tsuguharu FOUJITA (1886-1968) – 0.3% – Modern
  77. Alfred SISLEY (1839-1899) – 0.3% – 19th Century
  78. Laurence Stephen LOWRY (1887-1976) – 0.3% – Modern
  79. Morton Wayne THIEBAUD (b. 1920) – 0.3% – Post-War
  80. Nicolas de STAËL (1914-1955) – 0.3% – Modern
  81. Enrico CASTELLANI (1930-2017) – 0.3% – Post-War
  82. Anselm KIEFER (b. 1945) – 0.3% – Contemporary
  83. Michelangelo PISTOLETTO (b. 1933)  – 0.3% – Post-War
  84. GUAN Liang (1900-1986) –  0.3% – Modern
  85. Kees VAN DONGEN (1877-1968) – 0.3% – Modern
  86. Francis PICABIA (1879-1953) – 0.3% – Modern
  87. Piero MANZONI (1933-1963) – 0.3% – Post-War
  88. Tom WESSELMANN (1931-2004) – 0.3% – Post-War
  89. Giorgio MORANDI (1890-1964) – 0.3% – Modern
  90. Günther UECKER (b. 1930) – 0.2% – Post-War
  91. Josef ALBERS (1888-1976) – 0.2% – Modern
  92. Robert MOTHERWELL (1915-1991) – 0.2% – Modern
  93. Rufino TAMAYO (1899-1991) – 0.2% – Modern
  94. Hans ARP (1886-1966) – 0.2% – Modern
  95. Emil NOLDE (1867-1956) – 0.2% – Modern
  96. Paul KLEE (1879-1940) – 0.2% – Modern
  97. Jean-Paul RIOPELLE (1923-2002) – 0.2% – Post-War
  98. Alexej VON JAWLENSKY (1864-1941) – 0.2% – Modern
  99. Albert OEHLEN (b. 1954) – 0.2% – Contemporary
  100. Frank AUERBACH (b. 1931) – 0.2% – Post-War

 

SOURCE Artprice.com

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