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Demand for commodities, raw materials and components at its softest in nearly a year, signaling persistent weakness in the global economy: GEP Global Supply Chain Volatility Index

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  • Supply chain spare capacity rose in Europe, Asia and North America in December as slack reaches its greatest level since July 2023.
  • Notably, excess capacity at Asia’s suppliers rises to a level not seen since June 2020, suggesting a manufacturing recovery is still some way off
  • Input demand dropped more sharply in North America, which had been relatively resilient, driven by producers of intermediate and capital goods
  • Recessionary conditions persist in Europe, with purchasers at the region’s manufacturers cutting back at a pace rarely surpassed in two decades of data

CLARK, N.J., Jan. 12, 2024 /PRNewswire/ — The GEP Global Supply Chain Volatility Index — a leading indicator tracking demand conditions, shortages, transportation costs, inventories and backlogs based on a monthly survey of 27,000 businesses — showed global supply chain capacity going underutilized to the greatest extent since July at the end of 2023, with the index falling to -0.44 in December, from -0.34 in November. This marked the ninth successive month of spare capacity across global supply chains, with slack at producers at one of the highest levels since COVID-19 shutdowns in early 2020.  

Interpretating the data: Index > 0, supply chain capacity is being stretched. The further above 0, the more stretched supply chains are.; Index < 0, supply chain capacity is being underutilized. The further below 0, the more underutilized supply chains are.

Overall, demand for raw materials, commodities and components was at its most subdued since the start of 2023, boding ill for near-term global production levels. Our data revealed a persistence of recessionary conditions in Europe, with purchasing at the region’s manufacturers falling at a pace rarely surpassed in two decades of data.

Order books for suppliers to North America and Asia, two parts of the globe that fared much more robustly than elsewhere last year, also deteriorated in December, showing fresh signs of weakness in major economies. Notably, Asian supply chains were the most underutilized in three-and-a-half years, with manufacturing industries in the region’s major economies such as Japan, South Korea and Malaysia seeing a worsening. However, slack in North America’s supply chains remained far less widespread than mid-2023’s zenith.

In addition to soft supplier order books, the subdued current state of the global manufacturing industry was also highlighted by historically low reports of item shortages and backlogs, suggesting excess global supply levels, which will put further downward pressure on the prices of goods.

“Rising spare capacity at suppliers worldwide means that the end to the global manufacturing recession is still some way off,” explained David Doran, vice president, consulting, GEP. “Moreover, orders at intermediate and capital goods manufacturers are still slowing, which indicates stronger headwinds ahead, providing companies with greater leverage to drive down prices in 2024.”

DECEMBER 2023 KEY FINDINGS

  • DEMAND: The downturn in demand for raw materials, components and commodities worsened in December. Purchasing cutbacks were at the strongest seen since the beginning of 2023 as orders from clients in North America and Asia slumped. Demand weakness remained its most apparent in Europe, however.
  • INVENTORIES: Reports of safety stockpiling due to price or supply concerns held steady at its long-term average, showing little appetite among businesses to hold excess in their inventories.
  • MATERIAL SHORTAGES: Reports of item shortages are at their lowest level since January 2020.
  • LABOR SHORTAGES: The number of companies experiencing backlog accumulation due to a lack of staff fell further in December, indicating that workforce capacity is not restricting suppliers.
  • TRANSPORTATION: Global transportation costs are running below their long-term average and dipped to a five-month low in December.

REGIONAL SUPPLY CHAIN VOLATILITY

  • NORTH AMERICA: The index fell to -0.39, from -0.21, its lowest level since August, but still well below its recent bottom of -0.85 in June.
  • EUROPE: The index fell to -0.92, from -0.85, its lowest in three months and consistent with severe fragility within the region’s manufacturing sector.
  • U.K.: After rising to -0.58 in November, its highest since April, the index dropped to -1.05 in December, its lowest since April 2020, thereby highlighting considerable weakness across U.K. manufacturing.
  • ASIA: The index fell to -0.42, from -0.24, its lowest level in the post-pandemic era and pointing to growing signs of weakness within the globe’s key hub for goods production.

For more information, visit www.gep.com/volatility

Note: Full historical data dating back to January 2005 is available for subscription. Please contact [email protected].

The next release of the GEP Global Supply Chain Volatility Index will be 8 a.m. ET, February 13, 2024.

About the GEP Global Supply Chain Volatility Index 
The GEP Global Supply Chain Volatility Index is produced by S&P Global and GEP. It is derived from S&P Global’s PMI® surveys, sent to companies in over 40 countries, totaling around 27,000 companies. The headline figure is a weighted sum of six sub-indices derived from PMI data, PMI Comments Trackers and PMI Commodity Price & Supply Indicators compiled by S&P Global.

  • A value above 0 indicates that supply chain capacity is being stretched and supply chain volatility is increasing. The further above 0, the greater the extent to which capacity is being stretched.
  • A value below 0 indicates that supply chain capacity is being underutilized, reducing supply chain volatility. The further below 0, the greater the extent to which capacity is being underutilized.

A Supply Chain Volatility Index is also published at a regional level for Europe, Asia, North America and the U.K. For more information about the methodology, click here.

About GEP
GEP® delivers AI-powered procurement and supply chain solutions that help global enterprises become more agile and resilient, operate more efficiently and effectively, gain competitive advantage, boost profitability and increase shareholder value.

Fresh thinking, innovative products, unrivaled domain expertise, smart, passionate people — this is how GEP SOFTWARE™, GEP STRATEGY™ and GEP MANAGED SERVICES™ together deliver procurement and supply chain solutions of unprecedented scale, power and effectiveness. Our customers are the world’s best companies, including more than 550 Fortune 500 and Global 2000 industry leaders who rely on GEP to meet ambitious strategic, financial and operational goals.

A leader in multiple Gartner Magic Quadrants, GEP’s cloud-native software and digital business platforms consistently win awards and recognition from industry analysts, research firms and media outlets, including Gartner, Forrester, IDC, ISG, and Spend Matters.

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GEP is also regularly ranked a top procurement and supply chain consulting and strategy firm, and a leading managed services provider by ALM, Everest Group, NelsonHall, IDC, ISG and HFS, among others. Headquartered in Clark, New Jersey, GEP has offices and operations centers across Europe, Asia, Africa and the Americas. To learn more, visit www.gep.com.

About S&P Global
S&P Global (NYSE: SPGI) S&P Global provides essential intelligence. We enable governments, businesses and individuals with the right data, expertise and connected technology so that they can make decisions with conviction. From helping our customers assess new investments to guiding them through ESG and energy transition across supply chains, we unlock new opportunities, solve challenges and accelerate progress for the world. We are widely sought after by many of the world’s leading organizations to provide credit ratings, benchmarks, analytics and workflow solutions in the global capital, commodity and automotive markets. With every one of our offerings, we help the world’s leading organizations plan for tomorrow, today.

Disclaimer
The intellectual property rights to the data provided herein are owned by or licensed to S&P Global and/or its affiliates. Any unauthorised use, including but not limited to copying, distributing, transmitting or otherwise of any data appearing is not permitted without S&P Global’s prior consent. S&P Global shall not have any liability, duty or obligation for or relating to the content or information (“Data”) contained herein, any errors, inaccuracies, omissions or delays in the Data, or for any actions taken in reliance thereon. In no event shall S&P Global be liable for any special, incidental, or consequential damages, arising out of the use of the Data. Purchasing Managers’ Index™ and PMI® are either trade marks or registered trade marks of S&P Global Inc or licensed to S&P Global Inc and/or its affiliates.

This Content was published by S&P Global Market Intelligence and not by S&P Global Ratings, which is a separately managed division of S&P Global. Reproduction of any information, data or material, including ratings (“Content”) in any form is prohibited except with the prior written permission of the relevant party. Such party, its affiliates and suppliers (“Content Providers”) do not guarantee the accuracy, adequacy, completeness, timeliness or availability of any Content and are not responsible for any errors or omissions (negligent or otherwise), regardless of the cause, or for the results obtained from the use of such Content. In no event shall Content Providers be liable for any damages, costs, expenses, legal fees, or losses (including lost income or lost profit and opportunity costs) in connection with any use of the Content.

Media Contacts

Derek Creevey
Director, Public Relations
GEP
Phone: +1 732-382-6565
Email: [email protected]

Joe Hayes
Principal Economist
S&P Global Market Intelligence
T: +44-1344-328-099
[email protected]

 

GEP Global Supply Chain Volatility Index

 

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LONGi advocates for accelerating the energy just transition through green innovation at COP29

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BAKU, Azerbaijan, Nov. 22, 2024 /PRNewswire/ — On November 11th, the 29th Conference of the Parties (COP29) to the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change kicked off in Baku, the capital of Azerbaijan. The conference focused on how to fairly and effectively allocate climate financing resources, ensuring that every penny can be used to its maximum effect, helping countries achieve low-carbon economic transformation and enhance climate resilience.

At this critical moment in the global fight against climate change, as an advocate, practitioner, and leader in sustainable development in the global clean energy field, LONGi actively participated in COP29, advocating for the promotion of energy equity through green innovation. This marks LONGi’s sixth consecutive participation in the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change.

On November 15th, LONGi in collaboration with Deeprock Group, hosted a special event titled “SOLAR FOR ALL — The Key to Tackling Climate Change: Green Innovation Accelerates Just Energy Transition” at the “Biosphere 3” Solutions Pavilion in the Blue Zone of COP29. The event showcased LONGi’s latest scientific and technological achievements and project progress in the field of clean energy. Additionally, LONGi participated in a roundtable forum attended by representatives from UNHCR, the UN Refugee Agency, China Electricity Council (CEC), Global Energy Interconnection Development and Cooperation Organization (GEIDCO), World Economic Forum (WEF), Energy Foundation (EF), and relevant NGOs. At the forum, LONGi shared its stories about “Energy Equity” and discussed how to help climate-vulnerable regions enhance their climate resilience.

Solarization of the Emergency Stockpile in Uzbekistan Completed

UNHCR, the UN Refugee Agency and LONGi, a leading global solar technology company, have completed a groundbreaking project to solarize the UNHCR Regional Humanitarian Logistics Hub located in the Termez Cargo Centre in Surkhandarya, Uzbekistan.

The project, part of a wider UNHCR-LONGi climate action partnership, marks a significant step towards ensuring a sustainable energy supply for logistics that support refugees and internally displaced people (IDPs) across the region and beyond.

The solarization has transformed the Hub into a critical operation powered by clean energy. With the installation of high-efficiency solar panels, a substantial amount of renewable energy will be generated each year, reducing the Hub’s reliance on the grid and significantly lowering its carbon emissions.

“This transition to clean energy – a milestone in greening our supply chain globally – not only provides a renewable, reliable and cost-effective power source for the critical work that the Termez Supply Hub supports in the region, but also demonstrates UNHCR’s strong commitment to environmental sustainability,” said Shoko Shimozawa, Director of UNHCR’s Division of Emergency, Security and Supply (DESS).

The 700kW solar photovoltaic powerplant is expected to generate around 989,993kWh of electricity annually, reducing carbon emissions by approximately 495 metric tons per year. It will also result in significant annual electricity savings, which will benefit local energy infrastructure by reducing operating costs and allowing for reinvestment in further sustainable initiatives.

“By solarizing the Hub and partnering with UNHCR, LONGi is able to provide more efficient, reliable, safe and sustainable energy solutions for refugees around the world, accelerating the global energy transition and promoting energy equity,” said Dennis She, Vice President of LONGi. “Our vision is to promote a global energy transformation using BC (back-contact) solar technology, solving the electricity problem for people who are often without access to basic services, helping refugees to safeguard their rights and live in dignity.”

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This partnership sets a precedent for future projects that aim to promote renewable energy adoption and improve the lives of vulnerable populations.

A milestone in UNHCR’s efforts to achieve climate neutrality across its operations, the solarization of the Hub paves the way for further collaboration that draws on the skills and expertise of the private sector. And by investing in renewable energy solutions, alongside strong partners, UNHCR is not only reducing its environmental impact but also building resilience and ensuring a sustainable future for refugees and IDPs.

The Hub, which has served as UNHCR’s regional emergency preparedness and response stockpile since 2021 primarily for the Afghanistan response, will be incorporated into UNHCR’s global stockpile network in 2025. This network, currently consisting of seven UNHCR stockpiles, enables the organization to respond to emergencies anywhere in the world by delivering core relief items (CRIs) – like blankets, mattresses, solar lamps and kitchen sets – to up to 1 million people who have been forced to flee their homes within 72 hours of an emergency being declared.

Turning emergency stockpile operations net carbon-neutral is a critical priority for the sustainability of UNHCR’s work. And the success if this pilot in Termez paves the way for similar projects around the globe.

Accelerating Global Energy Equity with Leading Photovoltaic Technology

Dennis She believes that energy equity lies in providing clean, affordable, and non-discriminatory energy services for all of humanity. However, there is currently a huge disparity in per capita energy consumption levels among countries worldwide, with the top 20% of economies consuming about 80% of the global energy. At the same time, approximately 11% of the global population still lives in darkness without electricity, and about one-third of the population cannot use clean energy for cooking, with energy poverty directly affecting local economic development and the improvement of people’s quality of life. In addition, the uneven distribution of global energy resources and limited affordability also constrain the realization of energy equity on a global scale.

With the deepening implementation of global carbon neutrality goals, clean energy represented by photovoltaics will gradually become the backbone of the global energy transition. In particular, the technological and manufacturing attributes of photovoltaics continuously enhance their cost competitiveness, rapidly driving the process of energy transition.

Solar energy is more widely and abundantly distributed globally than traditional fossil fuels, and it is more beneficial to developing countries. As a new type of clean energy, photovoltaic (PV) power generation has seen a rapid decrease in the cost per kilowatt-hour with the continuous development of photovoltaic technology. Photovoltaics have become the most economical source of electricity in the majority of countries and regions worldwide. Their sustainability, affordability, and characteristics of fairness and security provide an excellent solution to help achieve global energy equity.

As a global leading solar technology company, LONGi calls for global energy equity and has been driving global energy transition in all aspects, reducing the costs for people on the path to carbon neutrality. This allows more people around the world, especially those in developing and underdeveloped countries and regions, to enjoy affordable clean energy and achieve energy equity. In 2022, Dennis She first advocated for global energy equity at COP27, calling for the allocation of limited resources to the popularization of renewable energy and urgent climate actions.

In the future, a new round of energy revolution centered on new energy will be accelerated, and the beautiful vision of a zero-carbon future will be realized sooner based on equal and economical distribution of clean electricity. At that time, light will be brought equally into every corner of the world, providing inclusive clean energy for all regions under all scenarios, truly achieving “SOLAR FOR ALL,” and the world will have unlimited possibilities for sustainable development.

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Global focus on vocational education at Tianjin conference

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BEIJING, Nov. 22, 2024 /PRNewswire/ — A report from China Daily

The 2024 World Vocational and Technical Education Development Conference brought together around 1,000 delegates in Tianjin in North China this week from Wednesday to Friday. Discussions at the conference have revolved around topics such as industry-education integration, sustainable development, teacher training and lifelong learning.

Co-hosted by China’s Ministry of Education, the National Commission of the People’s Republic of China for UNESCO and the Tianjin municipal government, the conference aims to advance vocational education as a driver of innovation and sustainable development worldwide.

The event introduces six key initiatives to shape vocational education globally: a comprehensive conference featuring keynote speeches, ministerial roundtables and bilateral talks; a global alliance uniting vocational institutions, industries and educational organizations; the presentation of the world vocational education award; an international skills competition with 42 tracks; an exhibition highlighting achievements in vocational education, intangible cultural heritage and international cooperation; and the launch of World Vocational and Technical Education, a journal produced by Tianjin University of Technology and Education.

In a video address to the conference, Stefania Giannini, assistant director-general for education at UNESCO, highlighted vocational education as a catalyst for transformation. She referenced UNESCO’s recent Recommendation on Education for Peace, Human Rights, and Sustainable Development, which emphasizes vocational education as a driver of change.

Calling for greater investment and innovation in vocational education to meet global challenges, Giannini said skills are the passport to navigating today’s complex world.

Huai Jinpeng, China’s minister of education, said vocational education should align with the trends of the times, uphold the essence of education and preserve its unique characteristics. It should anchor its development goals amid evolving opportunities and challenges, striving for innovative breakthroughs, he added.

Huai outlined a vision for vocational education as “5I” education — Inclusive, Industry-oriented, Innovative, Intelligent, and International — positioned to serve all, integrate with industries, drive innovation, embrace smart technologies and foster global cooperation.

To ensure smooth volunteer services during the conference, the Tianjin Municipal Youth League recruited 1,448 young volunteers from nine universities, including Nankai University. Their duties spanned more than 30 roles, including guest registration, conference coordination, translation, media reception and medical assistance.

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CKGSB Publishes 2024 ESG and Social Innovation Report Showcasing Progress on Driving Responsible Management Education

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BEIJING, Nov. 22, 2024 /PRNewswire/ — On November 21, 2024, Cheung Kong Graduate School of Business (CKGSB) released its 2024 ESG and Social Innovation Report at its event “ESG Strategies Conference: Insights for Business Transition” hosted in Shanghai in collaboration with the European Chamber of Commerce in China, witnessed by nearly 100 ESG-minded multinational business executives.

As the second edition of the school’s English-language ESG report, this report outlines CKGSB’s achievements and progress in the past two years in promoting sustainable business practices, fostering social innovation, and offering solutions to humanity’s common challenges as part of its broader mission to lead and drive responsible business education.

It emphasizes the school’s role in reshaping the future of management education through efforts in integrating ESG factors into its research and insights, programs and courses for decision-makers, strategic partnerships and dialogues, as well as institutional practices, which in return allows it to nurture responsible business leaders for society.

“Our approach to management education is rooted in the belief that businesses can and should be a force for good,” stated Li Haitao, Dean and Dean’s Distinguished Chair Professor of Finance of CKGSB. “CKGSB remains steadfast in its mission to developing leaders who are not only successful in their business endeavors, but also mindful of their responsibilities towards society and the environment.” CKGSB Professor of Marketing Zhu Rui, who drives the school’s efforts in teaching business for good, echoed Dean Li in saying, “Our goal is to empower companies, big or small, to seamlessly integrate ESG considerations into their core strategies and operations.”

The 2024 ESG and Social Innovation Report follows the seven principles of and has been submitted to the United Nations’ Principles for Responsible Management Education (PRME), a platform designed to promote responsible management practices for the benefit of society and our planet. It is now available for download on CKGSB’s website.

Looking forward, CKGSB will continue driving progress on responsible management education and contribute to a more sustainable and equitable future.

About CKGSB

Established in Beijing in November 2002, CKGSB is China’s first privately-funded and research-driven business school. The school aims to cultivate transformative business leaders with a global vision, sense of social responsibility, innovative mindset, and ability to lead with empathy and compassion. To learn more about CKGSB, please visit: https://english.ckgsb.edu.cn/

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