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DEMAND FOR RAW MATERIALS AND SEMI-MANUFACTURED GOODS WEAKENED IN JULY, FALLING AT FASTEST RATE THIS YEAR, SIGNALLING SLOWING ECONOMIC GROWTH: GEP GLOBAL SUPPLY CHAIN VOLATILITY INDEX

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  • Worldwide supply chain spare capacity rises, adding to the calls for the Federal Reserve to lower interest rates soon.
  • Asian factory demand at its weakest since December 2023, partly because of a notable decrease in purchasing by Chinese factories.
  • Suppliers to North America report underutilized capacity, with Mexican manufacturers reporting lower input demand for the first time since October 2023.
  • European market continues to struggle, with region’s manufacturing recession persisting.

CLARK, N.J., Aug. 12, 2024 /PRNewswire/ — In July, the GEP Global Supply Chain Volatility Index — a leading indicator tracking demand conditions, shortages, transportation costs, inventories and backlogs based on a monthly survey of 27,000 businesses — signaled underutilized capacity at global suppliers for the first time since April, falling to a four-month low.

The greatest level of slack in supply chains was in Europe, which continues to grapple with recession conditions in its manufacturing sector, especially in Germany. Asia growth also cooled as factory demand in the region contracted to its weakest since December 2023. Underlying data revealed a decrease in purchasing activity by Chinese factories — the first time this has occurred in nine months. Japan’s manufacturing sector was also a source of weakness.

Suppliers to North American companies reported slightly underutilized capacity during July, as was the case in June. Slowing purchasing activity was seen across all three countries within the region, with Canada reporting the steepest contraction. Notably, Mexican factories, which have been a driver of growth in the region this year, reported lower input demand for the first time since October 2023.

“In July, purchasing activity by global manufacturers declined, indicating that economic growth is slowing, adding to the calls for the Federal Reserve to lower interest rates sooner rather than later,” explained Mike Jette, vice president, consulting, GEP. “This is not alarming data. The world’s supply chains continue to operate efficiently, with no sign of stockpiling, shortages, or price pressures. But to head off any material slowdown in the second half of the year, manufacturers do need demand to increase.”

Interpreting the data:
Index > 0, supply chain capacity is being stretched. The further above 0, the more stretched supply chains are.
Index < 0, supply chain capacity is being underutilized. The further below 0, the more underutilized supply chains are.

JULY 2024 KEY FINDINGS

  • DEMAND: Having recovered in the first half of the year, global factory purchasing activity fell by the greatest margin since the end of 2023 in July, indicating renewed weakness in the world economy. Central to this decline was a fresh slowdown in Asia, driven by China and Japan. Europe’s manufacturing recession persisted, especially in Germany, where factory purchasing contracted sharply.
  • INVENTORIES: The inventory cycle has stabilized. While reports from global businesses of safety stockpiling due to price or supply concerns were below typical levels, the underlying indicator has generally trended in line with its long-term average so far this year.
  • MATERIAL SHORTAGES: Reports of item shortages fell slightly in July, down to their lowest level since January, signaling high stock levels at vendors of commodities and critical raw materials.
  • LABOR SHORTAGES: The supply of labor is not an inhibiting factor for global manufacturers, as reports of backlogs due to insufficient staffing capacity are at typical levels.
  • TRANSPORTATION: Although supply chain activity dipped in July, global transportation costs are at the highest in 21 months, largely driven by Asia.

REGIONAL SUPPLY CHAIN VOLATILITY

  • NORTH AMERICA: Index unchanged at -0.11, indicating slightly underutilized capacity across the region’s suppliers. Manufacturers in the U.S., Mexico and Canada all reported a softening of demand in July.

  • EUROPE: Index fell sharply to a three-month low of -0.49, down from -0.13. Europe’s manufacturing sector recession is persisting, with major economies, such as Germany, at the heart of the decline.

  • U.K.: Index dropped to 0.11, from 0.49 in June, but still signaling capacity pressures at the U.K.’s suppliers.

  • ASIA: Index slipped from June’s 16-month high of 0.35 to 0.07, its lowest since April. Demand for inputs at Asian factories was at its weakest this year, principally because of a softening in China and Japan.

For more information, visit www.gep.com/volatility.

Full historical data dating back to January 2005 is available for subscription. Please contact [email protected].

The next release of the GEP Global Supply Chain Volatility Index will be 8 a.m. ET, September 11, 2024.

About the GEP Global Supply Chain Volatility Index

The GEP Global Supply Chain Volatility Index is produced by S&P Global and GEP. It is derived from S&P Global’s PMI® surveys, sent to companies in over 40 countries, totaling around 27,000 companies. The headline figure is a weighted sum of six sub-indices derived from PMI data, PMI Comments Trackers and PMI Commodity Price & Supply Indicators compiled by S&P Global. For more information about the methodology, click here.

About GEP

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GEP® delivers AI-powered procurement and supply chain solutions that help global enterprises become more agile and resilient, operate more efficiently and effectively, gain competitive advantage, boost profitability and increase shareholder value. Fresh thinking, innovative products, unrivaled domain expertise, smart, passionate people — this is how GEP SOFTWARE™, GEP STRATEGY™ and GEP MANAGED SERVICES™ together deliver procurement and supply chain solutions of unprecedented scale, power and effectiveness. Our customers are the world’s best companies, including more than 550 Fortune 500 and Global 2000 industry leaders who rely on GEP to meet ambitious strategic, financial and operational goals. A leader in multiple Gartner Magic Quadrants, GEP’s cloud-native software and digital business platforms consistently win awards and recognition from industry analysts, research firms and media outlets, including Gartner, Forrester, IDC, ISG, and Spend Matters. GEP is also regularly ranked a top procurement and supply chain consulting and strategy firm, and a leading managed services provider by ALM, Everest Group, NelsonHall, IDC, ISG and HFS, among others. Headquartered in Clark, New Jersey, GEP has offices and operations centers across Europe, Asia, Africa and the Americas. To learn more, visit www.gep.com.

About S&P Global

S&P Global (NYSE: SPGI) S&P Global provides essential intelligence. We enable governments, businesses and individuals with the right data, expertise and connected technology so that they can make decisions with conviction. From helping our customers assess new investments to guiding them through ESG and energy transition across supply chains, we unlock new opportunities, solve challenges and accelerate progress for the world. We are widely sought after by many of the world’s leading organizations to provide credit ratings, benchmarks, analytics and workflow solutions in the global capital, commodity and automotive markets. With every one of our offerings, we help the world’s leading organizations plan for tomorrow, today.

Media Contacts

Derek Creevey               

Joe Hayes   

Email: [email protected]

GEP                                             

Principal Economist

Phone: +1 732-382-6565           

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S&P Global Market Intelligence     

Email: [email protected]      

Phone: +44-1344-328-099

 

GEP Global Supply Chain Volatility Index

 

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Inaugural Global South Media and Think Tank Forum held in Brazil

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SAO PAULO, Nov. 14, 2024 /PRNewswire/ — Themed “Development and Revitalization: A New Journey for the Global South,” the inaugural Global South Media and Think Tank Forum was held here from Monday to Tuesday.

Congratulatory messages from Chinese President Xi Jinping and Brazilian President Luiz Inacio Lula da Silva were read out at the forum.

The organizers of the forum said both President Xi and President Lula issued new important guidelines on the development of the Global South. The Global South is gaining momentum and becoming an indispensable and constructive force in the international community.

The forum is being held against the backdrop of the upcoming 19th G20 Summit in Brazil this month. Various media outlets and think tanks are expected to jointly amplify the voice of the Global South regarding upholding peace, opening up and development, global governance, and mutual learning among civilizations. They should demonstrate the responsibilities of the Global South, unite efforts for modernization of Global South nations, and jointly promote the building of a community with a shared future for mankind.

Among the guests of the forum are Dima Al-Khatib, director of the United Nations Office for South-South Cooperation, Yeidckol Polevnsky Gurwitz, chair of the Asia-Pacific Foreign Relations Committee of the Mexican Senate and Muhammad Ali Ali, managing director of News Agency of Nigeria. The guests asserted that the Global South is experiencing significant development, greatly impacting the trajectory of world history.

They hoped that the media and think tanks of the Global South will prioritize development and cooperation and promote global governance reform guided by the principles of fairness, justice, openness and inclusiveness. The guests called for all parties involved to collaborate to boost the new development of the Global South, create a new chapter of mutual learning among civilizations, and meet the new challenges of the all-media era.

During the opening ceremony, the Global South Media News Network was launched. The Sao Paulo Declaration of the Global South Media and Think Tank Forum, the think tank report “A New Model for Human Advancement and Its Global Significance” and multilingual versions of the report “Awakening of the Global South” were also released.

Guided by China’s State Council Information Office and jointly organized by Xinhua News Agency and Brazil Communication Company, the forum drew around 350 representatives from 170 media organizations, think tanks, government agencies, and enterprises from more than 70 countries and regions.

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Vantage Markets Celebrated Among the Top Brokers in Investing.com’s Latest Performance Test during the US Election Period

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LONDON, Nov. 14, 2024 /PRNewswire/ — Vantage Markets (or “Vantage”), an award-winning multi-asset broker, has once again solidified its reputation for excellence, outperforming competitors across multiple key categories in Investing.com’s latest brokerage test.

Investing.com, one of the world’s leading financial publishers, provides real-time financial news, analysis, and data, serving over 60 million monthly users across global markets. Its brokerage tests are highly regarded in the industry, offering comprehensive insights into broker performance based on rigorous evaluation criteria.

In this latest assessment, the test evaluated multiple key metrics, including leverage, spread value, spread stability, no-slippage rate, market depth, large order cost, and swap competitiveness, conducted during one of the most volatile periods – the U.S. elections—with test data focused on the product movement of Gold (XAUUSD).

Leverage

Vantage excelled in providing flexible, highly competitive leverage of up to 1:2000 (in selected regions), granting traders access to powerful financial instruments with a range of options tailored to their trading needs. This balance of flexibility and control is essential to Vantage’s philosophy of empowering traders with tools that support intelligent risk management.

Spread Value and Spread Stability

Based on ECN account data, the test highlighted Vantage’s exceptionally low spread values at 9.1 as compared to other brokers, offering traders cost-effective access to the markets. Furthermore, spread stability consistently held within a range of 8-9 points, a critical factor during market turbulence. This stability reflects Vantage’s robust infrastructure and dedication to providing reliable trading conditions regardless of market fluctuations.

No-Slippage Rate

Vantage demonstrated an unmatched 79% no-slippage execution rate on STP accounts, showcasing its ability to minimise the disparity between requested and executed prices.  By reducing unexpected deviations, Vantage ensures that traders’ strategies remain intact without unexpected deviations, enhancing trust and transparency in trade execution.

Market Depth

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In a rigorous test of order placements during high-volatility news events, Vantage exhibited unparalleled market depth, handling large lot sizes with minimal slippage. This level of market depth and stability reflects the strength of Vantage’s liquidity network, providing traders with a seamless experience even during peak market activity.

Large Order Cost
During the high-volatility US Election period, Vantage excelled with a larger order cost of -26.6, offering competitive pricing and minimising trading expenses for large transactions. This is at the back of Vantage’s commitment to ensure that traders enjoy cost-efficiency even in dynamic and fast-moving markets.

Swap Competitiveness

Vantage continues to deliver value with industry-leading swap rates, offering -30.8 for long positions and 22 for short positions. Known for offering some of the industry’s best swap rates, Vantage ranks highly with advantageous rates on both sides of the market, providing  traders added value, especially for long-term positions.

The recognition by Investing.com is a true testament to Vantage’s drive for excellence and reinforces its position as a leader in the global trading landscape. For traders across the world, these results are not only a reflection of Vantage’s superior trading conditions but also a promise of its unwavering commitment to fostering a high-performance trading environment.

David Shayer, CEO, Vantage UK said, “This recognition from Investing.com reaffirms Vantage UK’s commitment to delivering exceptional trading services tailored to the needs of UK traders. It’s a testament to the strides we’ve made in fostering a reliable and innovative trading environment. We look forward to building on this momentum, providing our traders with unmatched service and trading solutions in the year to come.”

For more information, visit Vantage’s Media Centre: https://www.vantagemarkets.co.uk/about/media-centre/

About Vantage

Vantage Markets (or Vantage) is a multi-asset broker offering clients access to a nimble and powerful service for trading Forex and Contracts for Difference (CFDs) products on, Commodities, Indices, Shares, ETFs, and Bonds.

With over 15 years of market experience, Vantage transcends the role of broker, providing a trusted trading ecosystem, an award-winning mobile trading app, and a user-friendly trading platform that empowers clients to seize trading opportunities. Download the Vantage App on App Store or Google Play.

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trade smarter @vantage
https://www.vantagemarkets.co.uk/

Risk warning: CFDs and Spread Bets are complex instruments and come with a high risk of losing money rapidly due to leverage. 70.5% of retail investor accounts lose money when trading CFDs and Spread Bets with this provider. You should consider whether you understand how CFDs and Spread Bets work and whether you can afford to take the high risk of losing your money. Please seek independent advice if necessary.

* ‘The Ultimate Trading Machine’ is a marketing term and does not imply guaranteed performance. CFDs involve significant risk and may not be suitable for all investors.

Vantage is the trading name of VGP LLP.

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Vantage Markets Named Leading Broker in Investing.com’s Latest Rankings for 2024 during the US Election Period

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SYDNEY, Nov. 14, 2024 /PRNewswire/ — Vantage Markets (or “Vantage”), an award-winning multi-asset broker, has once again solidified its reputation for excellence, outperforming competitors across multiple key categories in Investing.com’s latest brokerage test.

Investing.com, one of the world’s leading financial publishers, provides real-time financial news, analysis, and data, serving over 60 million monthly users across global markets. Its brokerage tests are highly regarded in the industry, offering comprehensive insights into broker performance based on rigorous evaluation criteria.

In this latest assessment, the test evaluated multiple key metrics, including leverage, spread value, spread stability, no-slippage rate, market depth, large order cost, and swap competitiveness, conducted during one of the most volatile periods – the U.S. elections—with test data focused on the product movement of Gold (XAUUSD).

Leverage
Vantage excelled in providing flexible, highly competitive leverage of up to 1:2000 (in selected regions), granting traders access to powerful financial instruments with a range of options tailored to their trading needs. This balance of flexibility and control is essential to Vantage’s philosophy of empowering traders with tools that support intelligent risk management.

Spread Value and Spread Stability
Based on ECN account data, the test highlighted Vantage’s exceptionally low spread values at 9.1 as compared to other brokers, offering traders cost-effective access to the markets. Furthermore, spread stability consistently held within a range of 8-9 points, a critical factor during market turbulence. This stability reflects Vantage’s robust infrastructure and dedication to providing reliable trading conditions regardless of market fluctuations.

No-Slippage Rate
Vantage demonstrated an unmatched 79% no-slippage execution rate on STP accounts, showcasing its ability to minimise the disparity between requested and executed prices.  By reducing unexpected deviations, Vantage ensures that traders’ strategies remain intact without unexpected deviations, enhancing trust and transparency in trade execution.

Market Depth
In a rigorous test of order placements during high-volatility news events, Vantage exhibited unparalleled market depth, handling large lot sizes with minimal slippage. This level of market depth and stability reflects the strength of Vantage’s liquidity network, providing traders with a seamless experience even during peak market activity.

Large Order Cost
During the high-volatility US Election period, Vantage excelled with a larger order cost of -26.6, offering competitive pricing and minimising trading expenses for large transactions. This is at the back of Vantage’s commitment to ensure that traders enjoy cost-efficiency even in dynamic and fast-moving markets.

Swap Competitiveness
Vantage continues to deliver value with industry-leading swap rates, offering -30.8 for long positions and 22 for short positions. Known for offering some of the industry’s best swap rates, Vantage ranks highly with advantageous rates on both sides of the market, providing  traders added value, especially for long-term positions.

The recognition by Investing.com is a true testament to Vantage’s drive for excellence and reinforces its position as a leader in the global trading landscape. For traders across the world, these results are not only a reflection of Vantage’s superior trading conditions but also a promise of its unwavering commitment to fostering a high-performance trading environment.

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Jack Kelly, Head of Sales, Vantage Australia said, “Here at Vantage Australia, we’re thrilled to see our dedication to delivering a high-quality trading experience recognised in Investing.com’s latest rankings. This achievement highlights the passion and precision we bring to our work every day. As we look ahead, we remain focused on refining our offerings and ensuring our traders have the best tools and support to navigate the markets with confidence.”

For more information, visit Investing.com.

About Vantage

Vantage Markets (or Vantage) is a multi-asset broker offering clients access to a nimble and powerful service for trading Forex and Contracts for Difference (CFDs) products on, Commodities, Indices, Shares, ETFs, and Bonds.

With over 15 years of market experience, Vantage transcends the role of broker, providing a trusted trading ecosystem, an award-winning mobile trading app, and a user-friendly trading platform that empowers clients to seize trading opportunities. Download the Vantage App on App Store or Google Play.

trade smarter @vantage

Vantage Global Prime Pty Ltd (ACN 157 768 566) (“Vantage”), located at 12/15 Castlereagh Street, Sydney, NSW, Australia, 2000, and is authorised and regulated by the Australian Securities & Investments Commission (ASIC) AFSL no. 428901.

Trading derivatives carries significant risks. It is not suitable for all investors and if you are a professional client, you could lose substantially more than your initial investment. When acquiring our derivative products, you have no entitlement, right or obligation to the underlying financial assets. Past performance is no indication of future performance and tax laws are subject to change. The information on this website is general in nature and doesn’t take into account your personal objectives, financial circumstances, or needs. Accordingly, before acting on the advice, you should consider whether the advice is suitable for you having regard to your objectives, financial situation and needs. We encourage you to seek independent advice if necessary.

You should consider whether you’re part of our target market by reviewing our Target Market Determination (TMD), reading our Product Disclosure Statement (PDS), and other legal documents to ensure you fully understand the risks before you make any trading decisions. We encourage you to seek independent advice if necessary.

 

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