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DEMAND FOR RAW MATERIALS AND SEMI-MANUFACTURED GOODS WEAKENED IN JULY, FALLING AT FASTEST RATE THIS YEAR, SIGNALLING SLOWING ECONOMIC GROWTH: GEP GLOBAL SUPPLY CHAIN VOLATILITY INDEX
- Worldwide supply chain spare capacity rises, adding to the calls for the Federal Reserve to lower interest rates soon.
- Asian factory demand at its weakest since December 2023, partly because of a notable decrease in purchasing by Chinese factories.
- Suppliers to North America report underutilized capacity, with Mexican manufacturers reporting lower input demand for the first time since October 2023.
- European market continues to struggle, with region’s manufacturing recession persisting.
CLARK, N.J., Aug. 12, 2024 /PRNewswire/ — In July, the GEP Global Supply Chain Volatility Index — a leading indicator tracking demand conditions, shortages, transportation costs, inventories and backlogs based on a monthly survey of 27,000 businesses — signaled underutilized capacity at global suppliers for the first time since April, falling to a four-month low.
The greatest level of slack in supply chains was in Europe, which continues to grapple with recession conditions in its manufacturing sector, especially in Germany. Asia growth also cooled as factory demand in the region contracted to its weakest since December 2023. Underlying data revealed a decrease in purchasing activity by Chinese factories — the first time this has occurred in nine months. Japan’s manufacturing sector was also a source of weakness.
Suppliers to North American companies reported slightly underutilized capacity during July, as was the case in June. Slowing purchasing activity was seen across all three countries within the region, with Canada reporting the steepest contraction. Notably, Mexican factories, which have been a driver of growth in the region this year, reported lower input demand for the first time since October 2023.
“In July, purchasing activity by global manufacturers declined, indicating that economic growth is slowing, adding to the calls for the Federal Reserve to lower interest rates sooner rather than later,” explained Mike Jette, vice president, consulting, GEP. “This is not alarming data. The world’s supply chains continue to operate efficiently, with no sign of stockpiling, shortages, or price pressures. But to head off any material slowdown in the second half of the year, manufacturers do need demand to increase.”
Interpreting the data:
Index > 0, supply chain capacity is being stretched. The further above 0, the more stretched supply chains are.
Index < 0, supply chain capacity is being underutilized. The further below 0, the more underutilized supply chains are.
JULY 2024 KEY FINDINGS
- DEMAND: Having recovered in the first half of the year, global factory purchasing activity fell by the greatest margin since the end of 2023 in July, indicating renewed weakness in the world economy. Central to this decline was a fresh slowdown in Asia, driven by China and Japan. Europe’s manufacturing recession persisted, especially in Germany, where factory purchasing contracted sharply.
- INVENTORIES: The inventory cycle has stabilized. While reports from global businesses of safety stockpiling due to price or supply concerns were below typical levels, the underlying indicator has generally trended in line with its long-term average so far this year.
- MATERIAL SHORTAGES: Reports of item shortages fell slightly in July, down to their lowest level since January, signaling high stock levels at vendors of commodities and critical raw materials.
- LABOR SHORTAGES: The supply of labor is not an inhibiting factor for global manufacturers, as reports of backlogs due to insufficient staffing capacity are at typical levels.
- TRANSPORTATION: Although supply chain activity dipped in July, global transportation costs are at the highest in 21 months, largely driven by Asia.
REGIONAL SUPPLY CHAIN VOLATILITY
- NORTH AMERICA: Index unchanged at -0.11, indicating slightly underutilized capacity across the region’s suppliers. Manufacturers in the U.S., Mexico and Canada all reported a softening of demand in July.
- EUROPE: Index fell sharply to a three-month low of -0.49, down from -0.13. Europe’s manufacturing sector recession is persisting, with major economies, such as Germany, at the heart of the decline.
- U.K.: Index dropped to 0.11, from 0.49 in June, but still signaling capacity pressures at the U.K.’s suppliers.
- ASIA: Index slipped from June’s 16-month high of 0.35 to 0.07, its lowest since April. Demand for inputs at Asian factories was at its weakest this year, principally because of a softening in China and Japan.
For more information, visit www.gep.com/volatility.
Full historical data dating back to January 2005 is available for subscription. Please contact [email protected].
The next release of the GEP Global Supply Chain Volatility Index will be 8 a.m. ET, September 11, 2024.
About the GEP Global Supply Chain Volatility Index
The GEP Global Supply Chain Volatility Index is produced by S&P Global and GEP. It is derived from S&P Global’s PMI® surveys, sent to companies in over 40 countries, totaling around 27,000 companies. The headline figure is a weighted sum of six sub-indices derived from PMI data, PMI Comments Trackers and PMI Commodity Price & Supply Indicators compiled by S&P Global. For more information about the methodology, click here.
About GEP
GEP® delivers AI-powered procurement and supply chain solutions that help global enterprises become more agile and resilient, operate more efficiently and effectively, gain competitive advantage, boost profitability and increase shareholder value. Fresh thinking, innovative products, unrivaled domain expertise, smart, passionate people — this is how GEP SOFTWARE™, GEP STRATEGY™ and GEP MANAGED SERVICES™ together deliver procurement and supply chain solutions of unprecedented scale, power and effectiveness. Our customers are the world’s best companies, including more than 550 Fortune 500 and Global 2000 industry leaders who rely on GEP to meet ambitious strategic, financial and operational goals. A leader in multiple Gartner Magic Quadrants, GEP’s cloud-native software and digital business platforms consistently win awards and recognition from industry analysts, research firms and media outlets, including Gartner, Forrester, IDC, ISG, and Spend Matters. GEP is also regularly ranked a top procurement and supply chain consulting and strategy firm, and a leading managed services provider by ALM, Everest Group, NelsonHall, IDC, ISG and HFS, among others. Headquartered in Clark, New Jersey, GEP has offices and operations centers across Europe, Asia, Africa and the Americas. To learn more, visit www.gep.com.
About S&P Global
S&P Global (NYSE: SPGI) S&P Global provides essential intelligence. We enable governments, businesses and individuals with the right data, expertise and connected technology so that they can make decisions with conviction. From helping our customers assess new investments to guiding them through ESG and energy transition across supply chains, we unlock new opportunities, solve challenges and accelerate progress for the world. We are widely sought after by many of the world’s leading organizations to provide credit ratings, benchmarks, analytics and workflow solutions in the global capital, commodity and automotive markets. With every one of our offerings, we help the world’s leading organizations plan for tomorrow, today.
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The 6th China-CEEC (Cangzhou) SME Cooperation Forum Launches
CANGZHOU, China, Nov. 10, 2024 /PRNewswire/ – A news report by Xinhuanet:
On November 7, the 6th China-Central and Eastern European Countries (CEEC) (Cangzhou) SME Cooperation Forum commenced in Cangzhou, Hebei Province. The forum was jointly hosted by the China Centre for Promotion of SME Development (ProSME) of the Ministry of Industry and Information Technology (MIIT), the Hebei Provincial Department of Industry and Information Technology, and Cangzhou Municipal People’s Government. Supporting organizations include the China International Cooperation Association of SMEs (CICASME) and the Office of Foreign Affairs Commission of the CPC Hebei Provincial Committee. The event was co-organized by the China-CEEC (Cangzhou) SME Cooperation Zone and the Cangzhou Municipal Bureau of Industry and Information Technology.
This year’s forum, themed “Deepening Cooperation and Sharing Opportunities,” combines both offline and online formats, with a primary focus on in-person engagement. Key activities include the Opening Ceremony and Keynote Forum, the Zero-Carbon Energy and Green Industry Innovation Forum, the International Forum on Remanufacturing Industry, the International Forum on Aviation Industry and Low Altitude Economy, and the SMEs’ Cross-border Collaboration and Matchmaking Meeting, and the European Segment of the 2024 International SME Innovation and Entrepreneurship Competition.
Throughout the forum, leading experts and dignitaries from around the world delivered speeches under the theme ‘New Path for Pragmatic Cooperation between SMEs of China and CEECs.’ They emphasized the critical roles of sustainable energy, the digital economy, and trade and logistics in strengthening ties between China and Central and Eastern European countries. In parallel, the event featured a range of innovative activities aimed at building an international platform to foster industrial cooperation and exchanges among SMEs from the participating nations.
At the Zero-Carbon Energy and Green Industry Innovation Forum, participating specialists and researchers engaged in discussions on developing a zero-carbon economy. They explored new opportunities, technologies, models, and challenges associated with lithium, hydrogen, and energy storage, with the aim of collaboratively advancing the green economy.
By attracting leading European innovation projects, the European division of the 2024 International SME Innovation and Entrepreneurship Competition has successfully transformed a number of innovative ideas into real-world applications, enhancing the collaborative development of new technologies between Chinese and European SMEs.
The China-CEEC (Cangzhou) SME Cooperation Forum, now in its sixth year, has emerged as Hebei Province’s leading foreign affairs initiative. The forum has drawn high-profile participants from Slovakia, Serbia, Germany, Finland, and neighboring countries, as well as ambassadors to China, and executives from leading Chinese and international industry associations and businesses. It has also spurred numerous collaborative projects between China and Central and Eastern European countries, enhancing cultural exchanges, educational partnerships, and technology transfers.
Cangzhou is positioning the forum as a premier, open platform designed to be engaging, impactful, and competitive. The city’s objective is to significantly improve and sustain high-level interactions and collaborations between China and Central and Eastern European countries across the manufacturing, technology, investment and trade sectors.
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HILVERSUM, Netherlands, Nov. 9, 2024 /PRNewswire/ — “We have taken note of Bill Ackman’s post in relation to Pershing Square and UMG on X yesterday. Neither UMG nor any of its other board members were involved in the formulation of the views in that post. As disclosed in UMG’s listing prospectus, Pershing has the right to request a listing in the US subject to a Pershing entity selling at least $500 million in UMG shares as part of the listing. Pershing does not have any right to require UMG to become a US domiciled company or delist from Euronext Amsterdam. While the company will endeavor in good faith to comply with its contractual obligations with respect to undertaking the process of a US listing at the request of Pershing, any actions or decisions beyond those necessary to comply (including any decisions to change the domicile of the company) will be based on an analysis taking into account what is value maximizing and in the best interests of all the shareholders of the company.”
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Manulife Investment Management aligns capabilities across regions under the newly created role of Global Emerging Market Equities CIO
LONDON, Nov. 8, 2024 /PRNewswire/ — Manulife Investment Management today announced enhancement to its equity organization in leveraging expertise across its Asia and Emerging Markets teams to improve investment experience for its clients. Charlie Dutton, an equity investment leader with substantial experience in Asia, is named to the newly created role of Chief Investment Officer, Global Emerging Market Equities. In this new role, Charlie will oversee and align our Asia ex-Japan and emerging market equity capabilities, ensuring we leverage local resources and insights across the organization.
Manulife Investment Management has operated in emerging markets for more than a century. Today, it has one of the largest equity teams based in Asia with over 90 investment professionals located across 10 markets in the region. By combining local insight with deep investment expertise, Manulife Investment Management will be able to leverage deeper information advantage over other asset managers based outside of Asia. The combined Emerging Market Equities organization manages over US$25 billion in AUM across Asia and emerging markets equity strategies.
“Collaboration and engagement have always been at the heart of our investment culture, and our emerging markets and Asia equity teams have participated in a variety of forums to exchange ideas and insights. The closer alignment of the Asia equity team with the global Emerging Markets equity organization formalizes the longstanding sharing of ideas and insights between our Asia and our emerging markets equity teams. We believe this alignment will translate into improved research sharing and investment decision making, and will enhance our ability to create custom-tailored solutions to meet client needs,” said Colin Purdie, Global Chief Investment Officer, Public Markets, Manulife Investment Management.
Charlie will be spending a considerable amount of time in Asia with the extensive investment teams across the region in the coming months. He will continue to be based in London, affording him the opportunity to work and communicate with the investment teams in London and across Asia effectively, ensuring connections between each.
Charlie brings more than 27 years of investment experience to this role, including over 25 years of Asia equity investment experience with seven years in Hong Kong as well as South Africa and London. Prior to joining Manulife Investment Management’s Emerging Markets Equity team earlier this year, Charlie was a fund manager at Ninety One as part of the Global Quality Capability team that managed assets across five strategies.
Before Ninety One, Charlie was a founding partner at Coupland Cardiff, an Asian investment firm, where he spent 10 years managing Asian focused equity funds. Prior to that, he was based in Hong Kong and served as director of Asia-Pacific research at JPMorgan and as a Hong Kong/China consumer analyst at JF Securities. Charlie started his career at HSBC based in Hong Kong as a HK/China Analyst.
“We are confident Charlie’s deep investment experience, including over 25 years investing in Asia equity, makes him ideally suited to take on the role of CIO, Emerging Markets Equities. We look forward to his leadership, combined with the support of our Asia investment teams, in building upon our strong foundation in the region, and leading our Asia business into the future,” said Steve Medina, Chief Investment Officer, Global Equities, Manulife Investment Management.
At the same time, Manulife Investment Management announced that Kathryn Langridge, Senior Managing Director, Senior Portfolio Manager, and Head of Emerging Markets Equity team, has shared her intention to retire effective October 31, 2025, after an impressive investment career spanning over 40 years. Meanwhile, Ronald Chan, CIO, Asia ex-Japan Equity, is departing Manulife Investment Management.
“The alignment of the Asia and the Emerging Markets equity teams is a testament to the critical role Asia plays in today’s equity markets, and further draws attention to the deep pool of talent in Manulife’s investment organization,” said Charlie Dutton, Chief Investment Officer, Global Emerging Market Equities. “By globalizing and strengthening this capability, Manulife Investment Management is better positioned to deliver for its clients while expanding the pipeline of research and insight the Emerging Markets equity team can deliver for other capabilities at the firm on a global basis.”
About Manulife Wealth & Asset Management
As part of Manulife Financial Corporation, Manulife Wealth & Asset Management provides global investment, financial advice, and retirement plan services to 19 million individuals, institutions, and retirement plan members worldwide. Our mission is to make decisions easier and lives better by empowering people today to invest for a better tomorrow. As a committed partner to our clients and as a responsible steward of investor capital, we offer a heritage of risk management, deep expertise across public and private markets, and comprehensive retirement plan services. We seek to provide better investment and impact outcomes and to help people confidently save and invest for a more secure financial future. Not all offerings are available in all jurisdictions. For additional information, please visit manulifeim.com.
Media contacts: Carl Wong, Manulife Investment Management Asia, +852 2510 3180, [email protected]; Elizabeth Bartlett, Head of Wealth & Asset Management Public Relations, North America & Europe, Manulife Investment Management, +1 857 210 2286, [email protected]
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