• U.S. factories cut back purchases sharply, signaling heightened risks of manufacturing weakness spilling over into the broader economy in 2025
• In contrast, Chinese factories report growth following three months of shrinking input purchasing
• Europe’s industrial recession shows no sign of abating, with German, French and Austrian producers at the heart of the downturn

CLARK, N.J., Nov. 12, 2024 /PRNewswire/ — The GEP Global Supply Chain Volatility Index — a leading indicator tracking demand conditions, shortages, transportation costs, inventories and backlogs based on a monthly survey of 27,000 businesses — posted -0.39, which was little change from -0.43 in September. Therefore, the index remained in territory that indicated one of the highest levels of spare capacity at global suppliers in over a year during October, with no imminent turnaround in Western manufacturing in sight.

Suppliers feeding the world’s largest markets reported contractions in October. Most notable was another steep rise in slack across North American supply chains due to declining factory activity in the U.S. In fact, purchasing managers at U.S. manufacturers made their strongest cutbacks to buying volumes in nearly a year and a half, indicating that factories in the world’s largest economy are preparing for lower production volumes. 

Suppliers feeding Asia also reported spare capacity in October, albeit to a lesser degree than we’re seeing in Western markets. This is due to the sustained strong expansion of certain manufacturing industries, such as India’s. Notably, in October, China’s factory production growth rebounded, and procurement activity rose after three months of contraction, although Japanese and South Korean producers made fewer purchases — an adverse leading indicator for manufacturing in these economies.

Europe’s industrial plight remained a key feature of the data in October. Vendor capacity was significantly underutilized, reflecting a continuation of subdued demand in key manufacturing hubs across the continent. Germany’s retrenching automotive manufacturing sector is a major headwind to factory output in Europe.

Additionally, October is the 14^th consecutive month that the items in short supply indicator has been negative.  This shows an excess supply of commodities and intermediate goods relative to current manufacturing demand globally.

“We’re in a buyers’ market. October is the fourth straight month that suppliers worldwide reported spare capacity, with notable contractions in factory demand across North America and Europe, underscoring the challenging outlook for Western manufacturers,” explained Todd Bremer, vice president, GEP. “President-elect Trump inherits U.S. manufacturers with plenty of spare capacity while in contrast, China’s modest rebound and strong expansion in India demonstrate greater resilience in Asia.”

OCTOBER 2024 KEY FINDINGS

• DEMAND: Procurement activity remains weak across the globe. Demand for commodities, components and raw materials continues to contract, and at one of the steepest rates seen in 2024 so far. By region, North America saw the weakest purchasing activity in October, followed by Europe. Input demand was more resilient in Asia, but still subdued overall.
• INVENTORIES: Inventory drawdowns intensified across factories worldwide in October. Reports of safety stockpiling remained low by historical standards as companies look to make their warehouses leaner to preserve cash flow and tightly manage stocks in line with the weak order situation.
• MATERIAL SHORTAGES: The items in short supply indicator, an aggregate measure which tracks the availability of critical components and raw materials, remains low, pointing to robust supply levels.
• LABOR SHORTAGES: Reports of manufacturers’ backlogs rising due to labor shortages ticked higher in October and were above the long-term average. However, factory employment levels have fallen in recent months, suggesting throughput has decreased as a result of lower workforce capacity and companies aren’t clearing backlogs as quickly.
• TRANSPORTATION: Global transportation costs were in line with their long-run average during October.

REGIONAL SUPPLY CHAIN VOLATILITY

• NORTH AMERICA: Index at -0.72, versus -0.78 previously. The latest figure is consistent with a substantial level of spare capacity at North America’s suppliers.
  
• EUROPE: Index at -0.52, from -0.74. Albeit an improvement from September, the latest data indicate a continuation of Europe’s industrial recession.
  
• U.K.: Index fell notably to -0.40, from -0.12, its lowest level in six months, signaling a deterioration in the U.K. manufacturing sector.
  
• ASIA: Index at -0.20, from -0.36. While indicative of spare capacity, the level of slack is much lower than seen in Western markets. India continues to have a strongly positive influence on the region.

For more information, visit www.gep.com/volatility.
Note: Full historical data dating back to January 2005 is available for subscription. Please contact [email protected].
The next release of the GEP Global Supply Chain Volatility Index will be 8 a.m. ET, Dec. 11, 2024.

About the GEP Global Supply Chain Volatility Index 
The GEP Global Supply Chain Volatility Index is produced by S&P Global and GEP. It is derived from S&P Global’s PMI^® surveys, sent to companies in over 40 countries, totaling around 27,000 companies. The headline figure is a weighted sum of six sub-indices derived from PMI data, PMI Comments Trackers and PMI Commodity Price & Supply Indicators compiled by S&P Global.

• A value above 0 indicates that supply chain capacity is being stretched and supply chain volatility is increasing. The further above 0, the greater the extent to which capacity is being stretched.
• A value below 0 indicates that supply chain capacity is being underutilized, reducing supply chain volatility. The further below 0, the greater the extent to which capacity is being underutilized.

A Supply Chain Volatility Index is also published at a regional level for Europe, Asia, North America and the U.K. For more information about the methodology, click here.

About GEP
GEP^® delivers AI-powered procurement and supply chain solutions that help global enterprises become more agile and resilient, operate more efficiently and effectively, gain competitive advantage, boost profitability and increase shareholder value. Fresh thinking, innovative products, unrivaled domain expertise, smart, passionate people — this is how GEP SOFTWARE™, GEP STRATEGY™ and GEP MANAGED SERVICES™ together deliver procurement and supply chain solutions of unprecedented scale, power and effectiveness. Our customers are the world’s best companies, including more than 1,000 Fortune 500 and Global 2000 industry leaders who rely on GEP to meet ambitious strategic, financial and operational goals. A leader in multiple Gartner Magic Quadrants, GEP’s cloud-native software and digital business platforms consistently win awards and recognition from industry analysts, research firms and media outlets, including Gartner, Forrester, IDC, ISG, and Spend Matters. GEP is also regularly ranked a top procurement and supply chain consulting and strategy firm, and a leading managed services provider by ALM, Everest Group, NelsonHall, IDC, ISG and HFS, among others. Headquartered in Clark, New Jersey, GEP has offices and operations centers across Europe, Asia, Africa and the Americas. To learn more, visit www.gep.com.

About S&P Global
S&P Global (NYSE: SPGI) S&P Global provides essential intelligence. We enable governments, businesses and individuals with the right data, expertise and connected technology so that they can make decisions with conviction. From helping our customers assess new investments to guiding them through ESG and energy transition across supply chains, we unlock new opportunities, solve challenges and accelerate progress for the world. We are widely sought after by many of the world’s leading organizations to provide credit ratings, benchmarks, analytics and workflow solutions in the global capital, commodity and automotive markets. With every one of our offerings, we help the world’s leading organizations plan for tomorrow, today.

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BEIJING, Nov. 12, 2024 /PRNewswire/ — The Double 11 Shopping Festival in 2024 is a year of change, signaling that e-commerce platforms want to transform their long-standing pursuit of “low prices”. Revealed the idea of optimizing the business environment.

First, on the eve of the “Double 11”, Taobao/Tmall platform launched WeChat payment and JD platform launched Alipay payment, which broke the payment restrictions between platforms and accelerated the flow of information and funds. Secondly, Taobao/Tmall have enabled JD Logistics, and JD has enabled Cai Niao Courier Station, accelerating logistics efficiency. E-commerce platforms have launched diversified subsidy policies to save operating costs and alleviate pressure on merchants.

Syntun has been monitoring and publishing e-commerce data fairly and impartially as a third-party platform for many years.

According to Syntun, during 2024 China “Double 11” shopping festival (Tmall & JD & PDD: Oct. 14th – Nov. 11th, 2024; TikTok: Oct. 8th – Nov. 11th, 2024；Kuaishou: Oct. 10th – Nov. 11th, 2024), the GMV of the major e-commerce platforms (only including traditional e-commerce platforms and livestreaming e-commerce platforms) was 1441.8 billion RMB. Traditional e-commerce platform GMV is 1109.3 billion RMB, of which Tmall platform ranks first. Live streaming e-commerce GMV is 332.5 billion RMB. Instant retail platform and community group-buying platform GMV are 28.1 billion RMB and 13.8 billion RMB respectively.

For more information about Double 11 Shopping Festival , please click the link: https://mma.prnewswire.com/media/2555149/PDF.pdf

As a professional digital retail data service provider, Syntun has developed a variety of products in line with the needs of the retail industry, which can solve the problems encountered in the process of production, operation, marketing and management, and help brands make accurate decisions.

Website: www.syntun.com

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The 2025 Global Private Equity Outlook provides dealmakers with key insights as they look to raise funds, deploy capital, and get back to the deal table over the next twelve months.

• 60% of respondents globally now offer a co-investment programme.
• 93% of respondents are at least somewhat likely to consider take-private deals in the next 12 months. 
• 82% of respondents expect secondaries activity levels to remain buoyant or increase in the next two years following 4x growth in the past five years.

LONDON, Nov. 12, 2024 /PRNewswire/ — Dechert LLP, in partnership with Mergermarket, has today announced the release of their 7^th annual Global Private Equity Outlook, a comprehensive report into the state of the private equity (PE) market today, and the challenges and opportunities that lie ahead for the industry in 2025.

Overall activity points to a genuine resilience in the PE sector in 2024, despite an increasingly volatile environment, including two years of increased borrowing costs following more than a decade of ultra-low interest rates as well as geopolitical volatility, economic turmoil and industry upheaval.

In volume terms, the first three quarters of 2024 saw 6,792 buyout transactions worldwide, representing just a 1% decrease on the same period in 2023. In value terms, meanwhile, 2024 looks much healthier than 2023 with buyout deals worth $703 billion worldwide in the first three quarters of the year, up 47% on 2023.

“This year’s report highlights the evolving state of the private equity industry. Whilst we have not seen a return to the levels of activity seen in 2021 and early 2022, dealmaking is robust when compared with the pre-pandemic years,” said Chris Field, co-head of Dechert’s private equity practice. “Improving sentiment and reduced uncertainty have laid the foundations for what should be an even stronger 2025.”

Based on responses from senior executives across 100 global PE firms, the key findings from this year’s Global Private Equity Outlook include: 

• 60% of respondents globally now offer a co-investment programme.
• 93% of respondents are at least somewhat likely to consider take-private deals in the next 12 months.  
• 82% of respondents expect secondaries activity levels to remain buoyant or increase in the next two years following 4x growth in the past five years.
• 34% of global respondents are exploring GP-stake divestitures in the next two years.

The report also highlights a number of challenges for firms to overcome. This includes increasing regulation, with 66% of PE firms globally expecting increased scrutiny from antitrust, FDI and other regulatory authorities to have a negative impact on their dealmaking plans over the next 12 months.

Meanwhile, over a quarter (27%) of respondents expect relatively weak economic growth to have the biggest impact on the deal environment over the next 12-18 months, while almost half (46%) cite geopolitical conflict as one of the three biggest impacts on the market over the near term.   

Focusing on EMEA, dealmaking has remained consistent, with deal value continuing to increase. Deals in the first three quarters of the year were worth a total of $203.7 billion, up from $119.0 billion over the same period in 2023. What’s more, exit activity is also starting to rise. “The U.S. market has been quicker to recover thus far, with the European market slightly behind. However, with rates falling and models improving, we can now follow the pick-up over the coming months.” Global Managing Partner, Sabina Comis, said.

“The system has been clogged,” adds Field. “Exits haven’t been happening as often because sellers were wanting prices that were too high to work for buyers when they put the numbers into their models; now that rates are reducing, the models start to look better, and the cycle begins to spin again.”

To read the 2025 Global Private Equity Outlook in full, please click here.

Methodology
In July 2024, Mergermarket, on behalf of Dechert LLP, surveyed 100 senior-level executives at PE firms based in North America (45%), EMEA (35%), and Asia-Pacific (20%). In order to qualify for inclusion, the firms all needed to have US$1bn or more in assets under management (AUM) and respondents could not be first-time fund managers.

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The survey included a combination of qualitative and quantitative questions, and all interviews were conducted over the telephone by appointment. Results were analysed and collated by Mergermarket, and all responses are anonymised and presented in aggregate.

About Dechert
Dechert is a global law firm that advises asset managers, financial institutions and corporations on issues critical to managing their business and their capital – from high-stakes litigation to complex transactions and regulatory matters. We answer questions that seem unsolvable, develop deal structures that are new to the market and protect clients’ rights in extreme situations. Our nearly 1,000 lawyers across 20 offices globally focus on the financial services, private equity, private credit, real estate, life sciences and technology sectors. 

About Dechert’s Global Private Equity Practice
Dechert has been at the forefront of advising private equity firms for almost 40 years. With more than 300 private equity and private investment clients, we have unique insights into how the industry has evolved and where it’s going next. Our globally integrated team of more than 350 private equity lawyers advises private equity, private credit and other alternative asset managers on flexible solutions at every phase of the investment life cycle.

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