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BofA Global Research Expects 2025 to be a Year of Further Equity Market Strength Amid Macro Uncertainty

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BofA Economists and Strategists Forecast the US Economy to Continue to Outperform and the S&P 500 to Reach 6666 by Year-end

NEW YORK, Dec. 3, 2024 /PRNewswire/ — While we await key details on policy changes in the US, indications thus far suggest the outlook for 2025 could present big opportunities for investors. The US economy is on strong footing, with growing signs of a pickup in productivity growth as we head into the new year. In their newly released outlook for 2025, BofA Global Research economists and strategists expect US economic and earnings growth to outpace that of other developed economies, while US equities should start the year off strong and end 2025 with the S&P 500 at 6666. Policy changes, including tariffs, tax policy, and the regulatory environment, should have almost as much impact on the rest of the world as they will for the US. As the year progresses, international opportunities should present themselves: European stocks are forecasted to slow but rebound to current levels by year-end 2025, and in China, domestic stimulus measures should offset any slowdown brought on by changes to trade policies.

“In 2024, growth surprised to the upside and inflation moved in the right direction, allowing central banks to start easing, risk assets to perform well, and global equities to reach new highs,” said Candace Browning, head of BofA Global Research. “But as we head into 2025, policy uncertainty has increased substantially. Many of the expected policy shifts should be positive for US equities, but a lot depends on their timing and how the rest of the world responds.”

Key macro calls made for the markets and economy in the year ahead are:

  1. Further upside for the S&P and it could come quickly: Head of US Equity Strategy Savita Subramanian expects more than 10% upward potential for the S&P and earnings growth to accelerate to 13% in 2025.
  2. Improved US productivity should help economic growth, but policy changes should play a critical role for US and rest of world: Senior US economist Aditya Bhave estimates US GDP growth to come in at 2.4% year-over-year (yoy) in 2025 and 2.1% yoy in 2026, which is above consensus partly due to improved productivity. A new mix of fiscal policies may be more supportive of US economic growth vs the rest of the world.
  3. Fed expected to cut twice before pausing; US bond yields should remain in a tight range: In 2025, Bhave and team expect the Federal Reserve to cut interest rates by 25 basis points at its March and June meetings and then pause. Mark Cabana, head of US Rates Strategy, expects a relatively tight trading range for the US 10-year Treasury yield, around 4-4.5%.
  4. Key commodity prices, including oil, expected to soften: Francisco Blanch, head of Commodities and Derivatives Research, expects commodity demand growth to weaken, particularly on raw materials. Macro fundamentals suggest markets in 2025 will be oversupplied for oil and grains but more finely balanced for metals. After facing headwinds early in the year, gold should peak at $3,000 per ounce.
  5. USD strength through 1H25 but then growth concerns lead to depreciation: Alex Cohen, senior FX strategist, expects the US Dollar to remain strong into the first half of 2025, around which time upside drivers should wane amid a less certain policy and growth outlook.
  6. Emerging Markets assets face a short-term risk, then likely improvement: Head of Global Emerging Markets Fixed Income Strategy David Hauner says that uncertainty about US policy is likely to send emerging markets lower, but investors may find a buying opportunity once there is more clarity on trade policy, especially if the US dollar peaks.
  7. US Cyclicals should outperform: Subramanian expects cyclical strength in 2025 for a variety of reasons, including the Republican sweep, productivity cycle, decades of underspending in manufacturing and light positioning in cyclicals.
  8. Demand for credit remains exceptionally strong: Our Credit Research team expects strong positive total returns for credit in developed markets next year, the third year in a row of strong performance.
  9. Expect Chinese growth to weaken but easing to offset tariff impact: Helen Qiao, greater chief China economist and head of Asia Economics, expects real GDP growth for China to decelerate to 4.5% yoy in 2025 and domestic demand stimulus to offset any impact from tariffs with a lag.
  10. Euro area equity market to see downside through mid-year, then a recovery. Sebastian Raedler, head of European Equity Strategy, expects 7% downside to the Stoxx 600 followed by a recovery close to current levels.

BofA Global Research

The BofA Global Research franchise covers approximately 3,500 stocks and 1,250 credits globally and ranks in the top tier in many external surveys. Most recently, the group was named No. 2 Global Research Firm of 2023 by Institutional Investor magazine; No. 1 in the 2024 Institutional Investor Developed Europe survey; No. 1 in the 2024 Emerging Europe, Middle East & Africa survey; No. 2 in the 2024 Institutional Investor All-America survey; and No. 2 in the 2023 Institutional Investor Global Fixed-Income Research survey. For more information about any awards cited, visit https://rsch.baml.com/awards

Bank of America

Bank of America is one of the world’s leading financial institutions, serving individual consumers, small and middle-market businesses and large corporations with a full range of banking, investing, asset management and other financial and risk management products and services. The company provides unmatched convenience in the United States, serving approximately 69 million consumer and small business clients with approximately 3,700 retail financial centers, approximately 15,000 ATMs (automated teller machines) and award-winning digital banking with approximately 58 million verified digital users. Bank of America is a global leader in wealth management, corporate and investment banking and trading across a broad range of asset classes, serving corporations, governments, institutions and individuals around the world. Bank of America offers industry-leading support to approximately 4 million small business households through a suite of innovative, easy-to-use online products and services. The company serves clients through operations across the United States, its territories and more than 35 countries. Bank of America Corporation stock is listed on the New York Stock Exchange (NYSE: BAC).

For more Bank of America news, including dividend announcements and other important information, visit the Bank of America newsroom and register for news email alerts.

Reporters may contact:

Melissa Anchan, Bank of America    
Phone: 1.646.532.9241
[email protected] 

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Fortegra Secures Licence, Launches New UK Subsidiary

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LONDON, Dec. 4, 2024 /PRNewswire/ — The Fortegra Group, Inc. (“Fortegra” or “the Company”), a global specialty insurer and subsidiary of Tiptree Inc. (NASDAQ: TIPT), today announced that it has received approval to establish Fortegra Insurance Company UK.

The Prudential Regulation Authority (PRA) has granted Fortegra approval to establish its subsidiary in the United Kingdom, effective November 29, 2024. This milestone enables Fortegra to significantly expand its specialty insurance underwriting services throughout the United Kingdom.

Recognised as a quality market for Managing General Agents (MGAs) and Managing General Underwriters (MGUs), Fortegra excels through its rigorous programme business underwriting, advanced AI and data science applications, and a steadfast commitment to consistent claims management. Fortegra’s underwriting approach ensures that the company effectively meets the evolving needs of agent partners and policyholders, cementing its market leadership.

“We’re pleased to announce the establishment of Fortegra Insurance Company UK,” said Richard Kahlbaugh, Fortegra’s chief executive officer. “Our objective is simple. We focus our efforts on establishing Fortegra as a quality market serving MGAs and agents seeking to underwrite niche programmes. The foundation of our past success, underwriting discipline, will serve Fortegra well as we enter the marketplace in the United Kingdom.”

The licensing of Fortegra UK provides an excellent opportunity to enhance the company’s presence in the UK and London markets, demonstrating its commitment to expanding in Europe. This strategic initiative builds on previous successes in Belgium and the EU.

Since entering the region in 2018, Fortegra has effectively expanded its reach through thoughtful geographic growth and establishing strong partnerships with reputable agents and MGAs. The company’s focus on delivering innovative and collaborative underwriting solutions positions it well for future growth and success.

About Fortegra
For more than 45 years, Fortegra, via its subsidiaries, has underwritten risk management solutions that help people and businesses succeed in the face of uncertainty. As a multinational specialty insurer whose insurance subsidiaries have an A.M. Best Financial Strength Rating of A- (Excellent) and an A.M. Best Financial Size Category of ‘X’, we offer a diverse set of admitted and excess and surplus lines insurance products and warranty solutions. For more information: www.fortegra.com.

Contact
[email protected]

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Investors reject trade-off between workers and AI, as over 70% urge companies to invest in both: PwC 2024 Global Investor Survey

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  • Over 60% of investors expect companies to deliver productivity, revenue and profitability gains from generative AI within the next 12 months
  • Investors see the importance of investing in people alongside technology, with 74% expecting companies to increase investment in upskilling. Investors are as likely to expect AI to lead to headcount increases (32%) as decreases (32%)
  • Investors are cautiously optimistic about the economy: 51% expect the economy to grow over the next 12 months
  • Investors continue to eye climate action, with 64% urging companies to moderately or significantly increase their investment to reduce carbon emissions

LONDON, Dec. 4, 2024 /PRNewswire/ –The pressure is on for companies to turn AI investment into impact, according to PwC’s 2024 Global Investor Survey, released today. 73% of investors say companies should deploy AI solutions at scale, as overwhelmingly 66% expect the companies they invest in to deliver productivity increases from AI over the next 12 months, with 63% expecting revenue increases and 62% expecting it to increase profitability.

 

 

The survey, which captures the views of 345 investors and analysts across 24 countries and territories, finds that investors see technological change as the most significant driver of change for the businesses they invest in (71%), ahead of government regulation (64%), changes in customer preference (61%), and supply chain instability (60%).

Notably, investors are also not seeing a trade-off between AI and workers. 74% of respondents urge the businesses they invest in or cover to invest in upskilling their workforce. 32% expect AI to lead to headcount increases of 5% or more – on par with the proportion who expect little to no change in headcount (31%).

Wes Bricker, Global Assurance Leader, PwC US, said:

“Investors expect to see real outcomes from GenAI over the next year and recognize that achieving this will take investment in people and upskilling, as well as technology. Management can expect scrutiny on how they deliver AI productivity gains and support for an approach that extends beyond the tech itself to reinvent the way businesses operate.”

Investors are optimistic about global economic growth

The survey finds that investors are cautiously optimistic about the global economy – half (51%) expect the economy to grow over the next 12 months, with macroeconomic and inflationary concerns falling from their 2022 highs (respectively, from 62% to 34% in 2024, and 67% to 31%). At the same time, investors’ greatest concerns are cyber risks (36%) and geopolitical conflict (36%), both of which are largely unchanged over the last two years but have slightly risen from 2023.

With these risks remaining top of mind for investors, almost nine in ten (86%) agree that the ability of a company to manage through a crisis is an important factor in their investment decision-making. 60% of investors believe it is also very or extremely important that companies re-think their business models in response to supply chain instability – and 68% say they should increase their investment to de-risk them.

Investors eye action on the impact of climate

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Investors continue to prioritize action on the impact of climate. 30% expect that the companies they invest in will be highly or extremely exposed to threats from climate change within the next 12 months, up eight points from 2022, although down two points from 2023.

75% of survey respondents agreed that they would moderately or significantly increase their investment in companies that are taking a range of climate-related actions, with the greatest support for taking action to build sustainable supply chains by working with suppliers and communities (80%). When assessing companies’ net-zero transition plans investors say governance (72%) and associated capital or operating expenditures (68%) are very or extremely important. Additionally, 71% say companies should incorporate ESG/sustainability directly into their corporate strategies – a similar level to 2023.

However, challenges remain – 44% of those surveyed agreed that to a large or very large extent, corporate reporting about a company’s sustainability performance contains unsupported claims – marking little change over the past two years. Not surprisingly, 73% are demanding a level of detail in assurance reports on sustainability information that is comparable to that of financial audits.

Nadja Picard, Global Reporting Leader, PwC Germany, said:

“Investors continue to prioritize action on the impact of climate. They are increasingly interested in the governance and financial impact and commitment of companies’ net-zero transition plans. Companies should embed sustainability in their strategies, particularly as investors continue to look at sustainability-related disclosures and communication to assess action.”

Investors look beyond financial statements

Investors value a wide range of data beyond financial information, particularly around corporate governance (40%) and innovation (37%). Most investors also report relying on multiple sources of information, including investor-focused communications (61%) and direct dialogue with the company (57%). Indeed, significantly fewer investors (55%) than in 2023 (66%) report relying on financial statements and note disclosures to a large or very large extent. As investors look to qualitative data, AI may provide significant opportunities in analysing information published by companies – nearly two-thirds (62%) say it has significantly or moderately increased their ability to do so.

Kazi Islam, Global Assurance Strategy & Growth Leader, PwC US, said:

“Reliable information is the lifeblood of capital markets, yet today’s pervasive flow of data can be a blessing and a curse. The expectation on business leaders is to communicate to investors what is material to their business, doubling down on transparency and consistency to ensure they are building trust through communication. As AI provides the capability needed to sift easier through these qualitative and quantitative data, ensuring consistent and effective communication from company leaders is imperative.”

Notes to Editors:

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About PwC 2024 Global Investor Survey

In September 2024, PwC surveyed 345 investors and analysts across 24 countries and territories and conducted in-depth interviews with 14 investment professionals. Respondents were predominantly institutional investors, comprising portfolio managers (21%), analysts (21%) and chief investment officers (23%), with 52% having more than ten years of experience in the industry. Their investments covered a range of asset classes, investing approaches and time horizons, and the assets under management (AUM) at their organisations range from <US$500 million to US$1 trillion or more; 53% of respondents are at organisations with total AUM of more than US$10 billion.

About PwC

At PwC, our purpose is to build trust in society and solve important problems. We’re a network of firms in 149 countries with more than 370,000 people who are committed to delivering quality in assurance, advisory and tax services. Find out more and tell us what matters to you by visiting us at www.pwc.com.

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Interlace Secures $10 Million in Series B1 Funding, Expands Leadership Team to Accelerate Global Growth

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SINGAPORE, Dec. 4, 2024 /PRNewswire/ — Interlace, a global card issuance and digital asset management platform based in Singapore, announced today that it has raised $10 million in its Series B1 funding round. The round was led by Bitrock Capital, with participation from prominent individual investors in the fintech industry, including early employees and senior managers from leading companies such as Klarna and Robinhood.

To date, Interlace has issued over 4.5 million cards, partnered with 100+ integrated partners, and processes over 60 million transactions annually. The new funding will support Interlace’s continued global expansion into key markets such as Asia-Pacific (APAC), the United States, and the United Kingdom. A significant portion of the investment will be allocated to building an international team, enhancing the company’s ability to serve a diverse and global client base.

To drive this ambitious expansion, Interlace is pleased to announce the addition of four seasoned executives to its leadership team:

  • Rob Vanden Broeke – Head of Global Financial Partners
    Rob is an accomplished executive in fintech, payments, and technology, with a strong background in integrated partnerships, Banking-as-a-Service (BaaS), and global payment solutions across various industries. At Interlace, Rob will focus on expanding global banking and fintech partnerships, scaling banking, card, and global payment solutions. His efforts will drive strategic partnerships and innovative financial products to broaden access to financial services for B2B and B2C clients worldwide.
  • Jeff Brunjes – Head of Global Operations
    Combining deep institutional finance expertise with strategic innovation, Jeff advances Interlace’s global mission by streamlining client experiences and building trust through operational excellence. Drawing from his background in investment banking operations and private wealth advisory, he brings a unique understanding of traditional financial processes and emerging digital asset opportunities. Jeff’s balanced approach positions Interlace as a trusted partner for businesses navigating the future of financial services.
  • Mark Homeier – Head of Marketing and Business Development
    Mark brings over two decades of experience in fintech, blockchain, marketing, and business development. Specializing in global growth strategies for innovative financial platforms, he focuses on creating efficient and cost-effective money management solutions. Mark’s expertise in enhancing Web3 usability and integrating cryptocurrency technologies will be instrumental in navigating technology-driven markets and fostering sustainable development.
  • JP Eaglin – Creative Director and Strategic Partnerships
    With over 25 years of experience developing and launching brands in the US, Latin America, and Asia, JP joins Interlace with his creative agency, Vanguard42. As Creative Director, he will oversee the rebrand and spearhead global marketing efforts. JP’s role in strategic partnerships will further enhance Interlace’s business development rollout, strengthening the company’s international presence.

“We are thrilled to welcome Mark, Jeff, Rob, and JP to our leadership team,” said Michael Wu, Founder and CEO at Interlace. “Their combined expertise and vision align perfectly with our mission to revolutionize global financial solutions. This expansion of our team, along with the new funding, positions us to accelerate our global growth and enhance our services for clients worldwide.”

Bitrock Capital expressed strong confidence in Interlace’s vision and capabilities.

“The Bitrock team is really impressed with Interlace’s technological and product capabilities. In only a couple years they have developed effective and compliant solutions to help cross border merchants make and receive payments,” said Alfred Shang, Founding partner at Bitrock Capital. “We think Interlace is uniquely positioned to capture the significant opportunities in the global payment markets with its young and eager management team and robust fintech capabilities. Bitrock will continue to support Interlace’s strategic and business development to create exceptional value for exporters and merchants as they navigate the challenging global trade and finance markets.”

Founded in 2019, Interlace delivers the most efficient and cost-effective cross-border, cross-currency, and cross-system financial solutions for Web3, cross-border e-commerce, B2B trade, developers, and more. Operating in strict compliance with global regulations, Interlace holds the highest security certification in the international card payment industry, PCI-DSS Level 1, and is licensed in the United States, Hong Kong, and Lithuania.

About Interlace

Interlace is an enterprise-level global card issuance and digital asset management company based in Singapore, dedicated to delivering efficient and cost-effective cross-border, cross-currency, and cross-system financial solutions. Serving sectors such as Web3, cross-border e-commerce, B2B trade, and software developers, Interlace operates in strict compliance with global regulations. The company holds the PCI-DSS Level 1 security certification and is licensed in the United States, Hong Kong, and Lithuania. Interlace is committed to innovating financial technology solutions that facilitate seamless global transactions and connectivity.

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